Feeling for the bottom . . . economists tell us that’s what the market is doing right now and here’s what they’re watching:
· MLS Inventories at unprecedented levels
· Builders cutting back to whittle down their existing inventory
· Surveys showing buyers remain uncertain about when to buy
· Uncertainty about homeowner insurance premiums
· Confusion over the impact of the legislature’s property tax changes
On the bright side:
· There’s tons of pent-up demand for housing
· Interest rates may inch up, but are expected to remain very attractive through 2008
· The national and local economies both remain strong with no sign of a looming recession
· The inflation rate is actually declining.
· The median sales price in our market continues to hover around $250,000
In other words, the indicators are pointing to a short-lived bottom before the market begins self-correcting and heads back up. One nice thing about a “free market system” is that it always seeks equilibrium. Experts say that even as forces push the market to one side of the supply/demand equation, other forces are already building to push it back.
Here are several things to watch:
· The number of inventory homes - currently at about 26,000 properties
· The months supply - currently at 18 months. In June of ‘06 we had about a 6½ month’s supply and were just entering a Buyer’s market. Historically a 6 months’ supply of inventory has been considered a neutral market - neither a Buyer’s or a Seller’s market (click on graph for full size image)
Remember that the best economist can’t tell us when we’re at the bottom. They can only tell us when it happened after the rebound is well underway. That’s because the economist works with historical data. Neither can the home buyer know the best time to purchase. One thing is clear, however: in the next six months there will be some great opportunities to purchase property in our market.
As always, we’re here to make the complex understandable and lead you to a great investment whether it’s a bigger home or an investment property for your portfolio. Over the past 23 remarkable years, we’ve guided 897 clients in creating wealth and financial security for their families by successfully investing in residential property.
-- David Gallup, Realtor